By Brianna Gomez, Jasmine Ortiz-Terriquez, Rachel Beronia
Every time the digital numbers on a gas station signboard tick upward, a potential Coyote reconsiders their future. At a campus where over 80% of students commute, the price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas isn’t just an economic indicator; it’s an unofficial admissions officer. An exclusive Coyote Chronicle analysis of a decade of data reveals that spikes at the pump have been followed by measurable dips in campus enrollment, suggesting that for many in the Inland Empire, the road to a degree is becoming a road too expensive to travel. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25647066/
As we approach the end of 2025, the promise of lower gas prices is not coming true. The struggle is real, especially for SoCal residents and commuters. CSUSB’s campus, being a primarily commuter University, has learned that gas prices may have certainly affected the number of students enrolled and graduating. According to the data, over the past ten years, the rise in gas prices has led to plummeting enrollment rates.
Back in 2014, unleaded gas prices were sitting at a comfortable average of $3.85. Isn’t it wild to think that? While low, CSUSB’s annual enrollment was at its highest with about 20,000 students. Today, in 2025, CSUSB’s enrollment is slightly lower than in 2014, at about 19,800 students. Although not much has changed in the past 10 years, if we look right in the middle of the data between 2014 and 2024, when gas prices were lower, we can see that enrollment was much higher. For example, back in 2016, when unleaded gas prices averaged $2.85, about 21,800 students were enrolled, a high for CSUSB’s enrollment. Based on the data collected, the rise in gas prices has shown a slight decrease in enrollment.
Despite this, students still attend and enroll in classes. Looking at first-time freshmen (FTF) retention and graduation rates, we can see that, although seemingly stagnant, there is a very slight decrease in the number of students enrolled in school or graduating. Back in 2014, for FTF, we saw a 71.30% retention rate and an 18.70% graduation rate. Most recently, in 2021, we saw a 4th-year retention rate of 58.50% and in 2020, a graduation rate of 23.90%. Even though the graduation rate seemed to increase, the retention rate decreased. Students still see the need to graduate but are increasingly deciding whether they want to continue to spend money and time commuting to CSUSB’s campus to do so.
So what does this mean for the road to a degree or for an on-campus education? Will students continue to seek an on-campus education, or will they divert to an online degree? Regardless, while rising gas prices remain an unpredictable variable, one thing is clear: adapting to these economic realities is not just a matter of convenience but one of necessity for the future of education in Southern California.